Analysis Of Trend And Variability Of Temperature In Ebonyi State, South -Eastern Nigeria, 1984 -2015
Abstract
Temperature being one of the indicators of climate change has become one of the most important discussions of recent times. Changes in temperature influence a variety of processes directly or indirectly which cut across every aspect of man existences. This paper therefore examined the trend in temperature as tools of climate change over Ebonyi State, South -Eastern Nigeria, which is an area well known for crop agriculture. Temperature data covering a period of 31 years (1984 -2015) were collected and analyzed using mean, moving average, standard deviation coefficient of variation and linear regression. Result revealed that there is a positive trend in temperature over the study period and that the area is getting warmer by 0.0037oc annually, which is an Indication that Ebonyi State is experiencing a rise in air surface temperature. Since most of the inhabitants are dependent on economic activities that are temperature sensitive like farming, the study therefore recommends that measure s should be taken by all stakeholders including the government, individuals and cooperate bodies to take the issue of climate variability serious in the study area in order to mitigate its impact in the long run.
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Introduction
Issues related to climate change and global warming arising from anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases have emerge as one of the most important environmental issues in the past few decades (Singh et al., 2013). Human activities at present are altering the carbon cycle by adding more CO2 to the atmosphere and also by influencing the ability of natural sinks, like forests, to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. The emission of carbon dioxide comes from a variety of natural sources; but human -relate d emissions are responsible for the increase that has occurred in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. Evidence has shown that the level of carbon dioxide in earth’s atmosphere presently is higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years. For instance in 2014, global CO2 emissions were projected to increase by an additional 2.5% over the 2013 level (USNCDC, 2013). Other sources of these emissions include water vapour, clorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane, tropospheric ozone and nitrous oxide. These gases are released into the atmosphere due to human activities such as burning of fossil fuel, gas flaring and deforestation amongst others .These gases are termed greenhouse gases, because they act as the glass of a greenhouse or sunroom which is relatively transparent to solar radiation which is in short wavelength but absorbs and emits terrestrial radiation which is in lo ng wavelength, and thereby increasing the temperature within the glass house or room. The continuous built up of greenhouse gases may induce changes in climatic system including increases in mean global temperatures. The global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.74°C from 1906 to 2005 and this rise has been attributed mostly to a rise in greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2007). Changes in temperature influence a variety of processes directly or indirectly for example the hydrological process. Temperature increases causes intensification of the hydrological cycle due to increase in evaporation and precipitation(Jain and Kumar, 2012; Tshiala et al., 2011) Temperature changes can also lead to changing patterns of precipitation, the spatial and temporal distribution
of runoff, soil moisture, and groundwater reserves as well as increased frequency of drought and flood occurrences (Tshiala et al., 2011). Changing temperature patterns could also have effects on soil and plant growth characteristics since temperature and water content are important physical factors for plant growth especially in Ebonyi State were majority are engaged in one form of agriculture or another as their source of livelihood. Non-optimum levels of water and temperature conditions can strongly perturb plant development, especially at the early stages of growth such as seed germination and emergence (Tshiala et al., 2011). Changes in climate may also impact the water availability and water needs for agriculture. If temperature increases and more sporadic rainfall events result from global warming, this will increase the demand irrigation needs in the future. The increasing number of heat-related deaths worldwide over the last few decades have portrayed an alarming picture of the extreme weather conditions and devastating impacts on human health to come if this warming continues unmitigated (CENR, 2008).Developing countries however have a challenge of inadequate information to tackle the inherent consequences that might result from the changes in temperature. Some of the measures put in place to tackle climate change such as mitigation, adaptation and vulnerability assessment may not yield valuable result if the extent to which these variables have varied is not known. This study therefore examines the trend and variability in temperature over Ebonyi State South- eastern Nigeria.
Conclusion
This study reveals that Ebonyi State is experiencing a rise in air surface temperature which by implication means that the St ate is susceptible to the attendant consequences o f global warming. As a result, the inhabitant who are mostly farmers who sources of livelihood is dependent on returns from agriculture that is temperature sensitive are vulnerable to the risk pose by increasing temperature. As changes in temperature may have impact on water availability and water needs for agriculture, thereby increasing the need for alternative source of water such as irrigation for crop survival in Ebonyi State. Plant and animal also respond to temperature variability which could have economic consequences on agricultural productivities and thereby increasing food scarcity The implication of the rising trend in temperature will also have impact on the environment as well as the wellbeing of the inhabitant of Ebonyi State for example, the human body responds to thermal stress by forcing blood into peripheral are as to promote heat loss through the skin, therefore health disorders are expected at higher temperature. The inhabitants of Ebonyi State, Southeastern Nigeria could be vulnerable to medical disorder which can include heat stroke, heat rash, heat cramp, heat exhaustion and heat syncope. Therefore, proactive steps should be taken by all stakeholders ranging from government, individuals and cooperate bodies to take the issue of climate variability serious and put measures in place to mitigate its effect in the study area and Nigeria in general.