Assessing the Impact of Climate Variability on Maize Production in Rwanda: A case of Gakenke District
Abstract
The changes in climatic variables is a challenge for the humanity as they affect different ecosystems important for life. This study assessed the impact of climate variability on maize production from 2012 to 2021. Specifically, this study 1) assessed the pattern of precipitation and temperature variability, 2) analysed the production of maize, and 3) investigated the relation between climate variability and maize production in Gakenke district. This study was conducted in three sectors, with a sample of 322 maize farmers. Climatic data were obtained from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency. Both descriptive statistic and regression and correlation analysis were performed in RStudio. The results showa remarkable variability in the annual mean temperature and annual rainfall. The mean temperature and amount of rain have increased by +1.34oC and 1.74 mm in Cyabingo, by +1.47oC and 1.997 mm in Gakenke, and by +1.52oC and 3.389 mm in Gashenyi. An overall increase in maize yields was highlighted and much dependent on temperature variation than precipitation variability. A strong correlation was between the temperature and yields, with rvalues of 0.98 for Cyabingo, 0.90 for Gakenke, and 0.94 for Gashenyi. The regression analysis indicates that maize yields were significantly influenced by temperature variability, with R-squared values of 0.960 (p-value = 0.000), 0.815 (p-value = 0.000), and 0.885 (p-value = 0.000) respectively in Cyabingo, Gakenke, and Gashenyi. On the other side, a mild positive correlation (r = 0. 43), a moderate negative correlation (r = -0.59), and a weak negative correlation (r = -0.1) were between precipitation and maize yields in Cyabingo, Gakenke, and Gashenyi, respectively. The regression analysis also indicates that maize yield of was not significantly influenced by precipitation variability. Although this study shows the temperature as an important factor for maize production, its continuing rise could bring to heavy rains and unexpected strong weather events, with ultimate negative impacts. Thus, adaptation strategies on climatic variability should be enhanced in order to minimize its disastrous effects on maize production.
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Introduction
The global development has encountered a significant challenge in the form of climate. This is primarily resulting from the effect of worldwide climate change, variation in rainfall patterns, and the rising average temperatures, which have introduced new hurdles and risks to all human and world wide. Changes in the climate are the result of both natural and human-induced factors occurring across continents and oceans [1]. These changes extend beyond typical atmospheric conditions and can be attributed to natural influences like the Earth'sorbital variations, volcanic activities, and crustal movements, as well as human activities such as the accumulation of greenhouse gases and aerosols, deforestation, intensive farming, waste disposal, transportation, industrial operations, and overconsumption [2]. Global warming, indicated by the overall increase in the planet'stemperature, has emerged as a predominant trend that will usher insignificant global transformations in the future. Recent studies highlight important information on the expected problems of food insecurity as consequence of climate change [3], [4], with particular effect on local communities that depend on rain-fed agriculture [5].
Agriculture makes up roughly 39% of Rwanda'stotal gross domestic product (GDP) and provides livelihoods for about 88% of the whole population, particularly in rural parts of the country, where the majority of Rwandans reside [6]. More than 65% of Rwandan population depend on agriculture, forestry and tourism resources for income generation and food security [7]. Among the four key sectors, agriculture stands out as a major factor accelerating the economic development and significantly improving the livelihoods in Rwanda. However, the sector is much prone to the weather and climate-related hazards, including unusual rainfall patterns, hail, floods, landslides, and extended periods of drought, all of which are consequences of climate variability, particularly in terms of temperature and rainfall patterns [8]. Recent incidents have shown the severe consequences of extreme weather events on agricultural output accross different parts of the country.
Therefore, it is critical to understand the extent of the effects of climate variability as an option for sustaining crop production and meet the countrywide food demand. In the light of this concern, this study assessed the impacts of climate variability on maize production in Gakenke district, northern part of Rwanda. Specifically, it provides important data of climate variability (especially on precipitation and temperature pattern) during the past 10 years (from 2012 to 2021), provides data on maize production and its trends in the study area during this study period, and also analyses and predicts the impact of climate variability on maize production in the study area. This provides information that is required to facilitate farmers for their adaptation to climate change thereby reducing their vulnerability to climatic crisis.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the results of this study reveals that, during the period dating from 2012 to 2021, there has been a remarkable variability in annual rainfall and annual mean temperature in the areas of study. This study provides evidence on the impacts of climate variability on maize production in Gakenke district, particularly through the variation of temperature. Thus, based on this study, the temperature can be considered as an important factor for maize production in Gakenke district, strongly positively correlated with maize yield, and its change has potentially affected maize yields as highlighted by the regression models presented above. The study does not show strong correlation between precipitation and maize yield, and the influence of precipitation was not statistically significant. However, the continuing rise in temperature observed in the study area could result in heavy rains and unexpected strong weather events, with ultimate disastrous effects on maize yields in the future. Yet, as the global temperature is continuingly increasing, climate change is expected to potentially affect the regions much depending on rain-fed agriculture [5], such as Rwanda. In this concern, regression models of maize yields were drawn for selected sectors, and could be a useful tool for future prediction.
V. RECOMMENDATIONS This study shows an evidence regarding the variability in climatic parameters (precipitation and temperature) observed during the past 10 years and their potential impacts as highlighted by the regression models elaborated for maize yields in Gakenke district. Therefore, in this study area, adaptation strategies on climatic variability should be adopted and enhanced at farm level in order to minimize the disastrous effects of climate change on maize production. The perceptions of local farmers on the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on maize production in Gakenke district could serve as a key asset for future research in order to investigate, in details, the way each climatic parameter is influencing the production of maize. Similar research should be conducted in other different agro-ecological zones in order to obtain sufficient data and a meaningful understanding on the effects of climate change on maize production, thereby contributing to the resilience and sustainability of agriculture in Rwanda.