Assessment of Decadal Trends in Rainfall and Temperature and Their Agricultural Implications in Alluri Sitharama Raju District of Andhra Pradesh
Abstract
This study quantifies the decadal hydrometeorological variability (2016–2025) and its agronomic implications for the rainfed, high-altitude tribal agro-ecosystem of Chintapalle in the Eastern Ghats. Utilizing daily meteorological datasets—precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin)—sourced from the Agro-Meteorological Field Unit, we applied descriptive statistical models and decadal aggregation to assess temporal climatic shifts. Our temporal analysis indicates pronounced precipitation volatility driven by monsoonal anomalies. The decadal mean precipitation stabilized at approximately 1480 mm, yet exhibited severe inter-annual amplitude fluctuations of up to 570 mm. Thermally, the data confirms a distinct post-2018 warming trajectory. Specifically, Tmax recorded a significant positive anomaly of approximately 1.4°C. A concomitant escalation in Tmin indicates warming nocturnal regimes, thereby constricting the diurnal temperature range (DTR). These combined hydrometeorological perturbations fundamentally destabilize regional agricultural systems. Altered thermal and precipitation regimes directly impact critical sowing windows, disrupt soil moisture homeostasis, accelerate crop phenology, and shift pest-pathogen dynamics for key crops including rice, coffee, maize, and turmeric. To mitigate these systemic vulnerabilities, integrating climate-resilient agronomy—specifically, advanced hydro-conservation, robust crop diversification paradigms, and hyper-local meteorological agro-advisory frameworks—is imperative for sustaining the adaptive capacity of this ecologically fragile zone.
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Introduction
Rainfed agricultural ecosystems are acutely vulnerable to hydro-thermal volatility, where marginal climatic shifts drastically destabilize crop phenology and yield trajectories (FAO, 2016; IPCC, 2014). Nationally, the agricultural sector underpins the Indian economy, contributing approximately 18% to the Gross Value Added (GVA) and serving as a critical engine for foreign exchange (MoA&FW, 2025). This macroeconomic importance is strongly mirrored at the micro-level in Chintapalle, a high-altitude tribal agro-climatic zone in Andhra Pradesh's Alluri Sitharama Raju (ASR) district (17.6765°N, 82.3419°E; elevation 768 m AMSL). The region's rugged topography and heavy dependency on spatiotemporally erratic monsoons directly govern its agricultural viability.
The ASR district's agrarian economy is anchored by a specific blend of subsistence cereals and high-value commercial crops with immense export potential (DES-AP, 2024). Coffee dominates the landscape, covering approximately 100,000 ha with an annual production of 12,000 MT and a productivity of 120 kg/ha. Indian coffee exports are currently witnessing sharp decadal growth, surging to a record $1.8 billion in 2024–25, driven heavily by global demand for sustainable, shade-grown varieties characteristic of the Chintapalle agency area (Coffee Board, 2025). Additionally, commercial rhizomes like turmeric (8,000 ha; 32,000 MT) and ginger (4,000 ha; 12,000 MT) provide critical economic buffers, directly feeding into India's robust spice export basket which consistently commands over $4 billion annually (Spices Board, 2024). Staple cereals form the backbone of local food security, led by rice (45,000 ha; 90,000 MT), maize (6,962 ha; 24,367 MT), and climate-resilient finger millet (15,000 ha; 16,500 MT). Notably, Indian millet exports have seen aggressive global expansion recently, cementing the commercial viability of these traditional tribal crops.
However, these foundational crops exhibit strict bioclimatic thresholds. Coffee demands precise thermal baselines and pre-monsoon precipitation for optimal anthesis, while the cereals and rhizomes are highly susceptible to biphasic extremes of soil moisture deficit, waterlogging, and shifting nocturnal thermal regimes. Driven by increasing evidence of irregular monsoon onsets and warming trajectories (MoES, 2020), localized decadal analyses are critical. Consequently, this study quantifies the decadal meteorological variability (2016–2025) in Chintapalle to assess systemic implications for these primary cropping systems, aiming to safeguard both local livelihoods and their broader economic export contributions through targeted, weather-based agro-advisories.
Conclusion
The decadal analysis (2016–2025) of rainfall and temperature in the Chintapalle region of the High Altitude and Tribal (HAT) Zone of Alluri Sitharama Raju District indicates increasing climatic variability characterized by irregular rainfall distribution and a gradual rise in temperature. The occurrence of alternating excess and deficit rainfall years reflects growing uncertainty in monsoon behavior, while increasing day and night temperatures may influence crop phenology, water demand, and productivity in predominantly rainfed farming systems. Strengthening climate resilience in this vulnerable tribal region requires targeted interventions, including:
- Expansion of rainwater harvesting structures such as farm ponds, check dams, and contour trenches through convergence of PMKSY (Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana), watershed programmes, and RAMG-type rural asset development schemes.
- Strengthening weather-based agro-advisories under GKMS (Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa).
- Promotion of climate-resilient millets and traditional crops under NFSM-Millets (National Food Security Mission-Millets) and tribal livelihood programmes.
- Enhanced involvement of agricultural universities through location-specific climate-resilient agriculture and livelihood security in the HAT zone of Alluri Sitharama Raju district.
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