Modeling and Forecasting for Agricultural Production – Food grains in India
Abstract
Food grains are cultivated indifferent proportions indifferent parts of India depending upon its intensity and cropping pattern. It is also useful to know the area, production and yield rates of food grains grown across the country over the years and to predict the future performance of these food grains by providing suitable forecasting methods. The data regarding production of food grains for the period from 1950 to 2021 is to be analyzed by applying forecasting method. Applying the worldwide accepted Box-Jenkins method would be a suitable tool for forecasting the performance of food grains in India. The study will prompt the government to take appropriate and necessary policy measures to sustain and arrest the fluctuating performance of food grains in India and take necessary steps to enhance its overall performance.
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Introduction
The Green Revolution in India, which began in the late 1960s, helped the country achieve self-sufficiency in food by the late 1980s. The growth of agricultural production exceeded all expectations, reaching a total food grain production of 191.2 million tonnes in 1996–97. While the population grew from 439 million in 1961 to 834 million in 1991, at a rate of 2.2% per year, food grain production nearly kept pace with population growth. However, the struggle to maintain food security for a population that reached one billion in August 1999 continues and given that an estimated 35% of Indians are still below the poverty line (IFPRI, 1999). Other emerging concerns and developments are also beginning to have an impact on the future prospects of agricultural development. The yield of major food crops has either reached its highest level or has started declining. Groundwater and surface water sources for irrigation are depleting. The traditional diet, heavy in grains, fails to meet basic nutritional requirements. The adverse effects that modern agriculture has on the environment and human health are a matter of concern for environmentalists, planners, and the public alike. These emerging issues have led many to believe that the original goal of the Green Revolution of 'productivity enhancement' needs to be redefined to include 'sustainability' and 'diversity' in food production. As the limits of growth in traditional food sectors are rapidly being reached, urgent national attention should be given to seeking ways to diversify food production
Conclusion
In this study the model developed for analysis was ARIMA (1,1,1) for production of food grains ARIMA (1,1,1) was applied. The production and productivity of the different food grain crops have increased during the period under review due to the combined effects on area, production and productivity. In addition to that, productivity can be further increased by adopting appropriate technologies. In light of these findings, following suggestions are recommended for formation of appropriate policies.