Seasonal Dynamics and Price Variability of Soybean (Glycine max L.) in Maharashtra: A Time Series Analysis
Abstract
Soybean is a major oilseed crop important for nutrition and agro-industrial development in India and Maharashtra as well. The study analyzes seasonal variation, trends in arrivals and prices, and price variability using time series analysis. Time series data on monthly arrivals and prices of soybean were collected from five major APMC markets (Latur, Amravati, Khamgaon, Jalna and Hinganghat) in Maharashtra for a period of 16 years (2009–2024). Seasonal patterns
in arrivals and prices were analyzed using seasonal indices and measures of intra-year and inter-year variability. The study analyzed seasonal indices and variability of soybean arrivals and prices across major markets in Maharashtra. Arrivals were highly concentrated during post-harvest months (October–November), while prices were higher during lean periods,
indicating a significant inverse relationship. Intra-year analysis showed that arrivals fluctuated more than prices, whereas prices remained relatively stable. Inter-year analysis also confirmed higher variability in arrivals compared to prices across markets. These variations are mainly influenced by production, climatic conditions, and supply factors. Overall, storage and steady demand help in maintaining price stability despite fluctuations in arrivals.
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Introduction
Soybean (Glycine max L.) is one of the most important oilseed and pulse crops in the world, valued for its high protein (around 40%) and oil content (about 20%). It plays a crucial role in ensuring nutritional security as well as supporting agro-based industries through products like edible oil, soybean meal, and livestock feed. Globally, soybean contributes significantly to agricultural trade and income generation, making it a key commodity in both developed anddeveloping economies. In India, soybean has emerged as a major kharif crop, particularly in states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan, where it has transformed the oilseed economy and enhanced farmers' income. India accounts for about 11.2 million hectares under soybean cultivation with a production of nearly 11.0 million tonnes and an average productivity of around 983 kg/ha. In Maharashtra, soybean occupies about 3.8 million hectares with a production of approximately 3.07 million tonnes and productivity ranging between 800 to 1169 kg/ha (SOPA, 2025; Research studies).
Conclusion
The study indicates that Maharashtra has strong potential for increasing soybean production due to favourable conditions; however, seasonal concentration of arrivals during the post-harvest period leads to price fluctuations. The analysis clearly shows a significant inverse relationship between arrivals and prices (p < 0.01), with arrivals exhibiting significantly higher variability than prices across markets (p < 0.05). Despite fluctuations in supply, prices remain relatively stable due to storage possibilities and consistent demand. Overall, the soybean market is characterized by seasonal supply patterns and relatively stable pricing behavior.
The intra-year analysis revealed that arrival variability (CV: 34–151%) was 2–3 times higher than price variability (CV: 15–59%) across markets. The inter-year analysis further confirmed that arrivals (CV: 9.73–162.78%) exhibited greater variability than prices (CV: 8.46–11.07%). These variations are mainly influenced by production, climatic conditions, and supply factors.
The relatively stable prices despite high arrival variability highlight the role of storage infrastructure and market integration in stabilizing prices.
References
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